Path to Victory: Canelo Alvarez
Written by Greg 9/9/25
How Canelo Got Here
Canelo has an insane resume. He fought a prime Floyd Mayweather as a 23 year old. Took a loss but learned from that fight and applied that to his career going forward. He beat Miguel Cotto, Shane Mosley, Erislandy Lara, Amir Khan, Genady “GGG” Golovkin, Danny Jacobs, Sergei Kovalev, Caleb Plant, Billy Joe Saunders (ended his career with a vicious hook that broke his face). He went up against and took an L from Dmitry Bivol before we knew Bivol was a pound for pound great. There is no one active in boxing with a more impressive resume. However, boxing is a “What have you done for me lately” business and there are rumors of Canelo’s decline. Don’t tell anyone but he hasn’t scored a knock out victory since Caleb Plant in November of 2021.
What Makes Canelo Great
Canelo has the best chin in boxing and maybe the best ever. He has been wobbled once in his 67 fight career against Miguel Cotto. Not hurt, but wobbled. Oh and Canelo was only 19 years old and the year was 2010. Insanity. His granite chin does two things. First, it gives Canelo a confidence boost once he has taken someone’s best shot and knows they can’t hurt him. He can start to walk through his opponents punches. That leads to the second thing this does. It demoralizes a fighter when you are hitting someone with your best punches and like some ginger Terminator, he just keeps coming forward.
Keep an eye out for Canelo’s punch selection. He is the master of hooks. I have never seen a person throw hooks to the body with such torque and mean intent. I don’t understand how he doesn’t dislocate his own elbows or shoulders throwing with that much power. Canelo is lethal with his counter punches. If you miss, he is hitting you. Hard. He may not put together a ton of combinations anymore but he doesn’t necessarily need to. His counter punch accuracy with power has proven to break down almost every fighter he has ever faced.
Now, there will be a lot made about Bud Crawford having the edge over Canelo in boxing. That is probably true but let’s not act like Canelo isn’t one of the world’s most elite boxers. He doesn’t move around with quick feet like Lomachenko. He doesn’t have the raw athletic explosiveness of a Teofimo Lopez. But Canelo has one of the highest boxing IQs, which he pairs with unrivaled experience. He does all the subtle things. His footwork is slow but gets him into the right positions. He sets up his shots throughout a fight. And his defense can be jaw dropping if he decides to display it.
How Canelo Wins
Canelo, most likely, has the most straightforward path to victory. Impose himself on Bud, who is really jumping 21 pounds, from 147 to 168. If Canelo can land some big power punches to the body early that will set the tone for the rest of the fight. We saw former 154 lb undisputed and undefeated champ, Jermell Charlo, run into that issue coming up in weight to fight Canelo. Canelo’s game plan doesn’t have to change much depending on who he is fighting. Canelo makes his opponents game plan for him. Big body shots early will slow Crawford down. Canelo will crack Bud with a counter that will make Bud hesitant. Around round 9, Canelo may have taken the fight out of Bud and can coast to a decision victory.